The Future of Moore’s Law

Somewhere in the deep recesses of my mind, not so deep perhaps, I secretly hope this post will be brought up decades from now as a defining moment of light shone upon an uncertain future. But I also realize that it’s funny to think that way.

My friend Charles has suggested that Moore’s Law will fail, not by slowing the pace of innovation, but by following it to its mathematical conclusion, and assuming that innovation will become infinitely rapid.

I’m not sure I buy the notion of infinitely fast innovation, but I had a wonderful insight, and then I saw the future, and then I saw my place in it, nearly all at once.

Pro-engineers, as I’ll call them, are problem solvers for problems no one has even discovered yet. Typically, someone builds a widget, then discovers that certain moving parts tend to interfere with one another, or wear prematurely. Pro-engineers preemptively see not only the problem, but are then able to set about finding a solution, before the first prototype is ever built.

I’m fond of telling friend that I get to see the future, but only about 10%. Just as soon as I’m told how funny and worthless that must be, I point out the notion of a dot-to-dot and how much 10% really is. A reasonably intelligent person can put 10% of the dots into a coherent picture at that rate.

I submit that before Moore’s Law fails, in whatever fashion, it will continue its onward march past the point of impossibility with the help of Pro-engineers, inventing past the horizon of the future that we can see, prefetching innovation as it were.

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